What to Expect from the U.S. Real Estate Market in 2026: Expert Forecasts

by Jessica J Baldovinos

What to Expect from the U.S. Real Estate Market in 2026: Expert Forecasts

Curious about where the housing market really stands in 2026? Here’s what top economists, analysts, and industry leaders are predicting—and why it matters to you as a homeowner, buyer, or investor.

1. Home Prices — Slower Growth Ahead

National Association of Realtors (NAR)
Forecasts a 4% increase in median home prices in 2026, slightly up from 3% in 2025 (The Close).
NAR & Real Estate Experts (via Real Wealth Report)
Predict home prices to rise from around $410,700 in 2025 to approximately $420,000 in 2026—a 2% increase (RealWealth).
Bankrate Analysis echoes NAR’s 2% price growth estimate for 2026 (Bankrate).
Capital Economics (Economist Thomas Ryan) sees continued strains:
Prices to climb 4% annually, reaching a potential $455,000 median by 2026. Meanwhile, mortgage rates may linger near 7% in 2025, easing slightly toward 6% by year-end 2026 (Business Insider).
Reuters Analyst Poll
Projects a 3.5% annual home-price increase through 2027—the slowest pace since 2011, pressured by high borrowing costs and limited housing supply (Reuters).

Takeaway:

Moderate home-price growth ranging from 2% to 4% is anticipated, reflecting a gradual stabilization—far from boom or bust.

2. Mortgage Rates & Housing Demand

NAR Forecast
Expects mortgage rates to ease slightly to 6.1% in 2026, down from 6.4% in 2025 (RealWealth, MarketWatch).
Thomas Ryan’s Outlook (Capital Economics)
Suggests mortgage rates will remain elevated (6–7%) well into 2026, reinforcing affordability challenges (Business Insider, Treasurecoasthomesales.com).

Summary: Expect borrowing costs to cool modestly—but remain restrictive.

3. Home Sales & Inventory Trends

NAR’s Projections
Foresee an 11% surge in existing-home sales in 2026, paired with an 8% increase in new-home sales—driven by pent-up demand and more available listings (MarketWatch).
Multifamily Sector (RCLCO Analysis)
Predicts stabilization—with gradually increasing rents and occupancy rates into 2026—driven by slowing new construction and sustained housing demand (RCLCO Real Estate Consulting).

4. Market Sentiment & Broader Trends

Bank of America Economists
Warn that the housing market will remain “stuck” into 2026, citing affordability woes, lock-in effects, and lack of housing activity. They expect home-price growth to slow sharply to ~0.5% in 2026 (ResiClub, RealEstateNews.com).
Zillow’s Updated Forecast
Projects only a 0.4% national price increase between mid‑2025 and mid‑2026, a modest uptick compared to earlier pessimistic forecasts (ResiClub).

Snapshot: Market Highlights for 2026

Forecast Source	Price Growth Estimate	Mortgage Rate Outlook	Sales / Rental Demand Outlook
NAR	+4%	~6.1%	+11% existing, +8% new-home sales
NAR / Real Wealth	+2%	—	—
Bankrate	+2%	—	—
Capital Economics (Ryan)	+4%	~6–7%, easing to ~6%	Strained affordability persists
Reuters Poll Analysts	~3.5%/year	High rates limited	Limited supply, slow construction
Bank of America	~0.5%	—	Market inertia expected
Zillow	+0.4% (mid‑2025 to mid‑2026)	—	Slowly stabilizing
RCLCO (Multifamily)	—	—	Stabilizing rentals, tightening supply

Why This Matters to You

If buying, expect more options and stabilized pricing—but don’t wait hoping for a crash.
If selling, pricing your home strategically could help you capitalize on continued buyer interest.
If investing or renting, consider opportunities in multifamily or rental markets, where occupancy is rising and supply tightening (RealWealth, Business Insider, Reuters, MarketWatch, The Times).